Consultant for DA16 project

Output a. Annotated outline of the study, with a description of its methodology and data sources. (Necessary adjustments to the expected elements of the study can also be suggested at this stage) Deliverable a. An annotated outline including (a) proposed structure, (b) literature review of methodologies, and (c) proposed methodology tailored to Cambodia. Delivery date a. 15/06/2026 Output b. First complete draft of the study Deliverable b. First draft of the assessment, including scenario design, preliminary macro-fiscal implications, and initial policy findings. Delivery date b. 15/08/2026 Output c. Final study, incorporating all the feedback received. Deliverable c. Final draft incorporating feedback, with references and technical annexes, that is ready for policy dialogue and publication. Delivery date c. 31/10/2026 Output d. Presentation of findings at capacity-building workshop for relevant policymakers Delivery date d. Presentation delivered at national capacity-building workshop; accompanying PowerPoint and summary handout submitted. Delivery date d. 31/12/2026

8/6 - 31/12/2026

As climate change intensifies, Cambodia faces significant macroeconomic risks, magnified by its reliance on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, tourism and construction. These risks threaten economic growth, macroeconomic stability and public debt sustainability, particularly given Cambodia’s relatively limited fiscal space and institutional capacity. ESCAP is implementing a Development Account project titled “Catalyzing finance and investments for climate action while ensuring debt sustainability in developing Asia-Pacific countries”. Part of this project supports selected countries in the region in assessing their macroeconomic exposure to climate risks, evaluating policy and institutional readiness, and identifying sustainable fiscal, monetary and financing strategies to enhance macroeconomic resilience amid climate change and climate action. The consultant will adapt a standardized analytical approach to Cambodia’s context, combining baseline debt diagnostics, fiscal-risk screening based on existing government and partner assessments, and the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS)-aligned climate-scenario analysis linked to policy design. A key feature of this assignment is to apply a climate-risk lens to Cambodia’s public finances and debt position. The analysis will assess how physical climate impacts and transition risks may affect fiscal resilience, financing needs, and public debt vulnerabilities. Specifically, the analysis will first conduct pragmatic fiscal-risk screening by synthesizing existing assessments by the government and its development partners (i.e., a targeted literature and data review), and secondly, adapt and apply illustrative NGFS-aligned climate scenario analysis, using transparent assumptions and available national and international data sources, to assess how alternative climate and policy pathways may affect fiscal revenues, expenditures, contingent liabilities, financing needs and public debt vulnerabilities. A central output of this work will be to propose climate risk-informed policy options and recommendations that support macroeconomic resilience, keeping in view the potential role of innovative, sustainable financing instruments. This provides an important evidence base that can inform broader policy and financing discussions, including potential linkages to Cambodia’s Sovereign Sustainability Bonds, by highlighting the fiscal and public debt management dimensions of resilience investments. The work will be conducted in coordination with key government institutions, including the Ministry of Economy and Finance, the National Bank of Cambodia, the Securities and Exchange Regulator, the Ministry of Planning, the Council for the Development of Cambodia, and the National Institute of Statistics. These institutions are jointly engaged in strengthening Cambodia’s climate-aligned public investment, sustainable public debt management, green finance ecosystem, and fiscal risk management capabilities. NC-ESCAP, acting as the national coordination partner to ESCAP for this project, will support the consultant in accessing and compiling existing macro-fiscal, climate and disaster-related data. In particular, NC-ESCAP will coordinate with relevant ministries and agencies (such as the Ministry of Economy and Finance, the National Bank of Cambodia, the National Institute of Statistics and disaster-risk agencies) to facilitate data collection and information sharing required for this assignment. The output of this assignment will contribute to a national policy dialogue and a capacity-building workshop, supporting the integration of climate-related risks into fiscal and economic planning. It will also reinforce institutional cooperation and provide an analytical foundation for aligning Cambodia’s public investment and sovereign debt strategies with long-term climate and development goals. The objective of this consultancy is to support the government of Cambodia in developing analytical capacity to integrate climate risks into macroeconomic and fiscal policy planning. Deliverables and Structure: The consultant will deliver two parts: (A) the Core Study, and (B) the Institutional Uptake. Part A: Core study: A macroeconomic-fiscal-climate assessment study This study should be around 10,000-15,000 words. An indicative allocation is around one-third of the words each for (1), (2) and (3), with flexibility as needed. (1) Baseline and analytical framework • Conduct a review of Cambodia’s public debt landscape to establish a baseline for the climate-debt analysis • Assess Cambodia’s macroeconomic exposure to climate-related physical and transition-related shocks. Identify the main fiscal transmission channels through which climate-related shocks and policies may affect Cambodia’s public finances, including revenues, expenditures, contingent liabilities, public investment needs, financing conditions and debt vulnerabilities. • Specify and document a transparent analytical framework for tracing climate shocks into macro-fiscal outcomes and public debt vulnerabilities, including key assumptions, transmission channels, indicative elasticities, and sensitivity ranges, ensuring the methodology and assumptions are accessible to government counterparts. • Set out a practical evidence plan for the subsequent ‘readiness and gaps’ assessment, including: • Clear assessment criteria linked to Cambodia’s macro-fiscal resilience and climate-risk management objectives; • A proposed list of quantitative and qualitative indicators (for example on macro-fiscal aggregates, climate- and disaster-related spending, financing, and institutional practices) that are indicative rather than prescriptive; • A structured overview of data needs, specifying potential national data sources, known limitations or gaps, and opportunities to complement domestic data with external benchmarks (e.g. NGFS scenarios and cross-country parameters), to guide practical data collection and prioritisation in collaboration with NC-ESCAP and government counterparts. (2) Scenario design and analysis • The analysis should distinguish, where relevant, between physical climate risks and transition-related risks, recognizing that they may affect Cambodia’s macro-fiscal position through different channels. Design and analyze four policy-relevant scenarios informed by the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) climate-scenario framework and adapted pragmatically to Cambodia’s macro-fiscal context, including: • Current Policies baseline: Business-as-usual pathway reflecting policies in force at the cut-off date • Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) / stated pledges scenario: Full implementation of Cambodia’s NDCs with no additional global policy tightening beyond stated pledges • Orderly Transition (Below 2°C / Net Zero 2050): Early, predictable and coordinated policy ramp-up consistent with Paris-aligned pathways • Disorderly Transition (Delayed / Divergent): Late and abrupt policy tightening to meet long-run targets, generating higher transition risks, such as stranded assets and inflationary and fiscal pressures • Apply the analytical framework specified in (1) to these scenarios to illustrate the potential implications for fiscal space, financing needs, contingent liabilities and public debt vulnerabilities. • Use these policy scenarios to: • Summarize key diagnostic drivers (e.g., revenue volatility, disaster-related spending, contingent liabilities) to inform policy package. • Link climate investment choices to feasible financing options (3) Policy package, implementation, and monitoring and evaluation • Readiness and gaps assessment (evidence-based): Using the scenario results, assess the readiness of key macro-fiscal, public debt management, and relevant institutional arrangements to manage identified risks, highlighting priority capacity gaps and corresponding capacity-building actions. • Propose tailored policy recommendations based on the scenario analysis, focusing on: • Fiscal strategies: Possible areas may include a climate-fiscal strategy embedded in the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework; budget tagging and climate fiscal-risk statements (including state-owned enterprises and public-private partnership projects); capital expenditures reprioritization and stronger public investment management (such as climate screens and shadow carbon price); fiscal revenue options and subsidy reform with targeted climate-related social protection; layered disaster-risk financing; and prudent public debt management including the potential use of credible sustainability-linked bonds and loans. • Financing strategy and instruments: Link the macro-fiscal findings to feasible financing options, including, where relevant, sustainable financing instruments, sovereign sustainability bonds, concessional finance, blended finance or other mechanisms that could support resilience investments while maintaining debt sustainability. • Regulation & supervision considerations: Identify high-level financial sector climate-risk management implications relevant to macroeconomic resilience, including financial stability transmission channels and relevant data or disclosure considerations where appropriate. • Monetary policy & operations: Discuss relevant implications of climate-related shocks for macro-financial conditions, including inflationary pressures, liquidity conditions, and broader financial stability considerations where relevant. • Implementation & monitoring and evaluation: Issues such as a practical implementation roadmap identifying sequencing priorities, institutional responsibilities, indicative milestones, and capacity-building needs. Part B: Institutional uptake of the study • Prepare and deliver a policy-focused presentation of the study’s key findings, methodologies, and recommendations. • Participate in a national capacity-building workshop with key government stakeholders to promote integration of climate-related macro-fiscal risks into policymaking and government budget processes. • Presentation and workshop participation may be delivered in virtual or hybrid format, subject to ESCAP arrangements. The consultant is expected to work under the general guidance of the Economic Affairs Officer of the Macroeconomic Policy and Analysis Section (MPAS) of ESCAP’s Macroeconomic Policy and Financing for Development Division (MPFD). Broad and in-depth understanding of macroeconomic policy, climate risk analysis, climate-integrated debt diagnostics, and fiscal instruments is required, along with sound knowledge of policy landscape and challenges in Cambodia. Experience in analytical or advisory roles in support of national governments or international development agencies is highly desirable.

Master of Arts in International Development/Economics Having experiences in Policy researchs

Fluent in English

Not available.