Strategic Update of the Country CA Analysis for the State of Palestine

CA document incorporating UNCT and DSC/RC/HC .

1. Background and Objective The Country Analysis (CA) is the United Nations system's independent, impartial and collective assessment and analysis of a country's situation. It serves as the principal evidence base for the UN Sustainable Development Cooperation Framework (UNSDCF) and informs the strategic positioning, programming, and partnerships of the UN Country Team (UNCT) under the leadership of the Resident Coordinator (RC). Per UNSDG guidance, the CA is a living document that must be continuously updated to reflect evolving country realities, emerging risks, and new opportunities for collective UN action. Under the most recent United Nations Sustainable Development Group (UNSDG) guidance and related integrated planning frameworks, the CA in complex “triple-hatted” settings is no longer conceived as a narrowly development-oriented analytical product. Rather, it functions as the UN system’s integrated strategic analysis platform underpinning collective engagement across peace, humanitarian, and development dimensions. In these contexts — where the Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary-General (DSRSG) is simultaneously Resident Coordinator (RC) and Humanitarian Coordinator (HC) — the CCA is expected to provide a shared, system-wide understanding of structural drivers of conflict, fragility, risks, vulnerabilities, resilience capacities, political economy dynamics, humanitarian conditions, institutional trajectories, and pathways toward sustainable peace and development. UNSDG guidance increasingly frames the CA as a continuously updated, forward-looking analytical process rather than a static report. In triple-hatted settings specifically, the CCA serves several interconnected purposes: it provides the common analytical foundation linking the mission mandate, humanitarian response planning, and the Cooperation Framework (or equivalent transition/recovery frameworks); it enables integrated decision-making across the UNCT, HCT and mission components; it supports collective prioritization around prevention, resilience, recovery, institution-building and durable solutions; it identifies multidimensional and transboundary risks, including conflict, climate, macroeconomic, governance, social cohesion and protection risks; and it informs political engagement, operational posture, financing strategies and sequencing between humanitarian, stabilization and development interventions. The scope of the CA in these contexts is therefore considerably broader than in standard development settings. It is expected to integrate conflict analysis and political economy analysis; humanitarian needs and protection trends; governance and institutional legitimacy dynamics; displacement and durable solutions dimensions; security and access constraints; resilience and recovery pathways; financing and fiscal sustainability considerations; regional and cross-border spillover dynamics; scenario-based and anticipatory analysis. Importantly, recent guidance emphasizes that the CA should not duplicate humanitarian needs overviews, mission political analyses, or separate conflict assessments. Instead, it should synthesize them into a coherent strategic narrative that identifies how humanitarian, peace and development dynamics interact and what this implies for collective UN positioning and programming. In triple-hatted contexts, the CA effectively becomes the principal “integrator” of analysis across pillars. Consequently, the CA becomes both an analytical instrument for integrated leadership and strategic coherence; and a convening mechanism to build shared system-wide understanding and collective accountability around priorities and risks. Recent practice also increasingly positions the CA as a dynamic risk-management and anticipatory tool. In fragile and transition contexts, UNSDG guidance encourages CAs to include: scenario analysis; stress-testing of development assumptions; analysis of conflict/climate/economic shocks; identification of tipping points and early warning indicators; examination of institutional absorptive capacities and resilience. The operating context in the State of Palestine has changed profoundly since the existing CA was finalized while new windows of opportunity are emerging around recovery and reconstruction planning, anticipatory action, accountability, and renewed international engagement, requiring a sharper and more forward-looking analytical foundation. Given the contest, the UNCT needs to develop a strategic update to the CA to identified the (i) transformation of the political, security, socio-economic, and humanitarian landscape; (ii) integrate emerging strategic priorities and collective positioning; (iii) sharpen the analysis of risks, drivers of fragility, and resilience factors; and (iv) provide a credible, shared evidence base for UNCT engagement with national counterparts, donors, IFIs, and regional partners. Objectives • Conduct a strategic update of the CA for the State of Palestine, integrating the latest evidence, data, and forward-looking analysis on the evolving political, security, humanitarian, socio-economic, environmental, governance, protection, and human rights dynamics across Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem. • Provide an integrated analytical foundation for collective UN engagement across humanitarian, development, political, recovery and resilience dimensions, ensuring coherence between UNCT, HCT and broader UN strategic frameworks and positioning. • Analyze structural drivers of fragility, conflict, exclusion and institutional vulnerability, alongside resilience factors, coping capacities, and opportunities for recovery, stabilization, governance renewal, and sustainable development. • Assess the implications of the current crisis and evolving operating environment on progress toward the 2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with particular attention to protection risks, inequalities, displacement, gender dynamics, youth, disability inclusion, and Leaving No One Behind (LNOB). • Strengthen integrated analysis of cross-cutting and cross-pillar issues — including protection, international humanitarian law and human rights considerations, governance and rule of law, social cohesion, climate and environmental risks, economic recovery, durable solutions, and the humanitarian-development-peace nexus — identifying strategic entry points for collective UN action. • Refresh and strengthen the UNCT’s anticipatory, scenario-based, and risk-informed analysis, including assessment of multidimensional risks, potential escalation trajectories, institutional absorptive capacities, operational constraints, and implications for contingency planning, programming, and prioritization. • Inform the UNCT’s strategic positioning, programming, advocacy, partnership engagement, and financing discussions, including engagement with national counterparts, donors, IFIs, regional actors, and emerging recovery and reconstruction mechanisms. • Ensure alignment of the updated CA with relevant UNSDG guidance, the UN normative framework, applicable Security Council resolutions, and ongoing UN strategic and recovery efforts, including early recovery and resilience-oriented approaches. • Produce an updated CA and an accompanying concise strategic synthesis paper tailored for senior UN leadership engagement, strategic decision-making, advocacy, and external stakeholder engagement. 2. Duties and Responsibilities Under the overall guidance of the Deputy Special Coordinator/Resident Coordinator/Humanitarian Coordinator for the State of Palestine and in close coordination with the DSC/RC/HC integrated office (UNSCO/RCO) and regional DCO for Arab States, the consultant will deliver the following: • Draft Updated CA : Strategic update reflecting evolving challenges and opportunities, risk and scenario analysis, and stakeholder mapping; structured in line with UNSDG guidance on CAs. • Final Updated CCA and Executive Brief : Final CA document incorporating UNCT and DSC/RC/HC Integrated Office feedback. 3. Performance indicators • All deliverables are submitted on or before the deadlines specified in the contract. • The updated CA is analytically rigorous, forward-looking, evidence-based, and fully aligned with the latest UNSDG guidance for complex and triple-hatted settings, including integration of humanitarian, development, political, recovery, resilience, governance, protection, and human rights dimensions. • The updated CA demonstrates strong integration and synthesis across pillars and analytical streams, avoiding fragmentation or duplication of existing humanitarian, political, or sectoral analyses, while clearly articulating how these dynamics interact and their implications for collective UN engagement. • The analysis effectively identifies structural drivers of fragility, conflict, exclusion, vulnerability, and institutional weakness, alongside resilience factors, opportunities for recovery and stabilization, and potential pathways toward sustainable development and peace. • The CA includes robust and actionable analysis of multidimensional risks, scenarios, anticipatory considerations, and operational implications, including escalation trajectories, institutional absorptive capacities, and implications for UN programming, contingency planning, and prioritization. • The deliverables provide a credible and strategically relevant evidence base to inform UNCT positioning, advocacy, programming, partnerships, financing discussions, and engagement with national counterparts, donors, IFIs, and regional actors. • Cross-cutting issues — including LNOB, gender equality, disability inclusion, youth, protection, governance, climate and environmental risks, social cohesion, and the humanitarian-development-peace nexus — are systematically and substantively integrated throughout the analysis rather than treated as standalone sections. • The CA demonstrates strong political economy and institutional analysis, including assessment of governance dynamics, legitimacy considerations, fiscal and financing constraints, and implications for recovery and reconstruction efforts. • Deliverables are strategically focused, concise where appropriate, logically structured, and written in clear, high-quality professional language suitable for senior UN leadership, UNCT principals, and external strategic engagement. • Recommendations, strategic implications, and identified entry points for collective UN action are practical, actionable, and clearly linked to the analytical findings and evolving operational context. • The consultant shows a clear understanding of the UN's requirements and working methods, producing outputs that are relevant, practical, and tailored to the needs of the DSC/RC/HC, UNCT, and partners. • The consultant engages effectively with the DSC/RC/HC Integrated Office and DCO RO, UN entities, and relevant stakeholders, incorporating feedback constructively and in a timely manner, while maintaining analytical coherence and quality throughout the process. • All outputs are factually accurate, methodologically sound, internally coherent, appropriately sourced, and free from substantive drafting, formatting, or analytical inconsistencies. • Services rendered demonstrate high professional quality, strategic added value, and value for money relative to the agreed scope of work and consultancy fee, as assessed by the supervisor.

A Master’s degree or equivalent in computer science, mathematics, data science, engineering, statistics or related area is required. All candidates must submit a copy of the required educational degree. Incomplete applications will not be reviewed. A minimum of 3 years of professional work experience of progressively responsible professional experience in one or more of the following areas: foresight, strategic analysis, scenario planning, or AI-driven data analytics, is required. Experience in developing or applying AI models, predictive analytics, or data-driven decision support is highly desirable.

English and French are the working languages of the United Nations Secretariat. For this position, fluency in English is required and knowledge of Arabic is desirable. Note: “Fluency” equals a rating of ‘fluent’ in all four areas (speak, read, write, and understand) and “Knowledge of” equals a rating of ‘confident’ in two of the four areas.

Not available.